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International Sociology
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Poverty Dynamics in Europe

A Multilevel Recurrent Discrete-Time Hazard Analysis

Marc Callens

Research Centre of the Flemish Government, marc.callens{at}dar.vlaanderen.be

Christophe Croux

Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, christophe.croux{at}econ.kuleuven.be

This article uses multilevel recurrent discrete-time hazard analysis to simultaneously model the impact of life cycle events and structural processes on poverty entry and exit across European Regions. Research questions are, (1) what is the importance of life cycle events on the road to entry into and exit from poverty, (2) are there any differences in poverty dynamics between European Regions and if so, how can we explain these differences? The analysis is based on individual and household panel data of the European Community Household Panel linked with a regional time series database. Main findings are that men's poverty dynamics is dominated by employment-related events, while for women demographic events also play a role. Regional structural factors only have a slight or no influence on poverty transitions, but the welfare regime turns out to be highly significant for poverty entry.

Key Words: discrete-time hazard analysis • ECHP (European Community Household Panel) • multilevel analysis • poverty • poverty dynamics • recurrent events

International Sociology, Vol. 24, No. 3, 368-396 (2009)
DOI: 10.1177/0268580909102913
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